Sterling: the future of the British currency and gold prices

The 20/10/2022 in "Financial news"

The British currency and more specifically gold, expressed in pounds sterling, is finely related to all the country's historical peaks.

Indeed, on the one hand, the collapse of the currency in the UK has made the yellow metal quite profitable for the British public.

Similarly, gold has been of considerable importance since the all-time high set this winter following the war between Ukraine and Russia.

 

Even though it has held up well since 1 January 2022 against traditional investments such as shares or bonds, gold has suffered in recent months, weighed down by the surge in forward rates and particularly real rates, which represent government bond rates minus expected future inflation in a few years.

 

Moreover, as gold does not generate income, it is mechanically affected by rather unfavourable arbitrages when all real government bond rates change or even increase.

 

 

On the other hand, quoted in dollars, this precious metal has experienced a strong appreciation of the greenback against the various major currencies, which makes it more expensive for investors with currencies other than the dollar.

 

Moreover, this mixed performance since the beginning of the year may seem disappointing to some in view of the continuing high geopolitical tensions arising from the war in Ukraine and the conflict between China and the United States over Taiwan. 

 

It should be noted here that gold is basically considered a safe haven in the face of shocks and uncertainties. However, given the very unstable trajectory of real rates in recent quarters, the precious metal could have lost much more value over the period.

 

Therefore, even if gold, expressed in dollar terms, did not meet these various objectives, it would still be considered one of the most enviable and sustainable currencies in comparison to, for example, the euro, the yen or the pound sterling.

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