The world seems to be tipping into a new financial crisis, like the Internet bubble or the subprime crisis. However, the current crisis appears to be much deeper, as it directly impacts the nuclear heart of international finance: government bonds, and in particular US treasury bills.
The "whatever it takes" approach, not only in France but also worldwide, was bound to trigger a process of financial breakdown in the long run.
Similarly, the injections of liquidity by Central Banks and States, in connection with the great confinements of the year 2020, awakened the sleeping monster of inflation. This depreciation in the value of money has been coupled with a whole range of heavy problems, particularly logistical and energy ones. And we won't even mention the impact of the conflict in Ukraine...
This depreciation in the value of currencies has provoked a catch-up reaction on the part of the Central Banks, which have been forced to chase this inflationary rise. The increase in interest rates, aimed at restricting access to liquidity for most players (households, companies, etc.), therefore caused a genuine bond crack.
Indeed, in the face of the rise in yields linked to new issues of Treasury bills, the old bills, associated with much lower rates, have lost a major part of their value over the last few months. However, treasury bills, particularly American ones (the famous T-Bonds), are the main product used for "everything" in the financial world (to repay, to provide a return for funds, etc.). It was unstoppable that a major institution would eventually die as a result of this collapse in the value of T-Bonds. Fate chose Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).
The Fed already seems to be pivoting and announcing that it will resume its injections in order to save the system once again. As long as the value of the dollar is not totally destroyed, the Fed and the US government will be able to keep the printing presses running.
Inflation will persist and strengthen. The dollar may still be around in a century, but by then how many dollars will it take to buy an ounce of gold ?
By Christophe Lavigne
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