Gold has become the best-performing asset since Donald Trump's inauguration last November. This asset recorded an exceptional performance of 27% in 2024. 

At the start of 2025, the price of gold is rising steadily, with eight consecutive weeks of gains already under its belt. The golden metal gained 6.60% in January and is continuing its advance towards the symbolic level of 3,000 dollars an ounce. 

But as this threshold approaches, what can explain the steady rise in the price of gold over the last few months? What are the prospects expected by financial professionals? And above all, how can private investors position themselves in gold at these price levels? 

ARTICLE SUMMARY : 

• Macroeconomic conditions favour gold's rise 
• Against this backdrop, what are the views of managers, analysts and major banks? 
• What strategy should private investors adopt when investing in gold? 

A macro-economic context favourable to gold's rise 

A number of observations can be made to understand the strong momentum currently benefiting gold. 

The Trump effect 

The major catalyst keeping up this buying pressure remains the uncertainties surrounding Donald Trump's presidency of the United States. More specifically, the threat of tariffs on imports from partner countries such as Canada, Mexico and China, as well as Europe. In the medium term, this will inevitably lead to a slowdown in world trade, prompting investors to protect themselves by shifting their capital into safe havens such as physical gold. 

This is evidenced by the fact that short gold positions recently reached their lowest level since April 2020. This indicates strong confidence that the price of gold will continue to rise. 

Similarly, a large accumulation of gold in New York (+75% since the US elections) has created a shortage of bullion in London, leading to withdrawal times of 4 to 8 weeks at the Bank of England. 

The many geopolitical risks  

Central banks are currently in great demand for gold, particularly in emerging economies. Similarly, countries such as Poland, India, China and Turkey are pursuing their strategy of diversifying their reserves away from the dollar, further boosting demand for gold. 

These countries are seeking to diversify their reserves and protect themselves against geopolitical risks. Last year, gold purchases by central banks reached a record level of 1,037 tonnes, a trend that is set to continue in 2025. 

Gold-buying fever is also fuelled by factors such as tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, where talks have only just begun. There are also concerns in the United States about China's desire for territorial expansion and the ensuing arms race. 

Against this backdrop, what is the feeling among managers, analysts and major banks? 

Analysts at US bank Citi recently revised upwards their short-term price target for gold to $3,000 an ounce. While the $3,000 mark is expected to be breached within the year, they are forecasting an average price of $2,900 for 2025. 

Similarly, J.P. Morgan anticipates that gold could reach 3,000 dollars an ounce, but from 2026, with an estimated average of 2,950 dollars for the year 2025. 

Goldman Sachs is also predicting a gold price of $3,000 by mid-2026. A few months ago, the bank was forecasting a gold price of $3,000 in December 2025. But the US Federal Reserve's announcement of a smaller-than-expected rate cut this year is likely to weigh on the price of the precious metal. In the bank's view, gold should therefore be trading at around $2,910 by the end of 2025. 

(Trends in gold over the last 15 years) The price of gold has risen by 45% since October 2023, in less than 18 months. The graphic comes from Trading View.

What strategy should private investors adopt when investing in gold? 

In investment terms, the notion of a ‘psychological threshold’ is particularly important and has been verified in the past. Whatever the asset, investors will often tend to take their profits (target profit) or losses (stop loss) on key levels, on ‘round’ figures. One example is Bitcoin's long-awaited crossing of the $100,000 threshold at the end of 2024. Since then, the cryptocurrency has traded sideways in a channel between $95,000 and $108,000. 

There are three main short-term scenarios:

- A continuation of the uptrend in gold, which will clearly break through the symbolic threshold of $3,000 an ounce, before lateralising for a few weeks/months like Bitcoin, to resume its forward march. 

- A spike could occur with a false break of $3,000. The ‘big hands’ in the market will push prices higher to chase target profits and stop losses for buyers and sellers... before the price of gold falls again.

An example of a strong bullish surge for three consecutive weeks to reach the symbolic level of $2,000 an ounce in the summer of 2020, before exhausting its momentum and retreating for several consecutive months. The graphic comes from Trading View.

- The market could well approach $3,000 without breaking through and initiate a sharper correction back to supports around $2,750 or even $2,600, before building a new upward leg to break through the $3,000 mark later this year.

From a longer-term investment perspective, the momentum remains very bullish and it is not too late to jump on the bandwagon. It may be worthwhile to regularly accumulate gold in the form of coins, bars and dimes. 

The $3,000 an ounce threshold is undeniably in sight and, given current gold prices (around $2,930 at the time of writing), a further rise of just under 3% to reach this historic level seems entirely conceivable. 

Conclusion 

While there are no technical signals to suggest that the current trend is losing momentum, it is important to remember that bullish expectations for the gold price are also subject to global economic and political variables.  

Indeed, changes in monetary policy, geopolitical tensions or economic conditions could influence the trajectory of the gold price, in one direction or another, in 2025.